The Hot Hand Fallacy: Believing Streaks Are More Than Just Luck

17 February 2026

Imagine you're watching a basketball game. One player is on fire, sinking shot after shot. The crowd is going wild, and the commentators can't stop talking about the player's "hot hand." It feels like they're in the zone, and everyone – even the player – believes they can't miss. But is this really skill, or could it just be pure luck?

This belief, that success comes in streaks and that these streaks will continue, is known as the Hot Hand Fallacy. It's one of those psychological traps that we all fall into, whether we're talking about sports, gambling, or even life decisions. In this article, we’ll dive deep into what the hot hand fallacy is, why we fall for it, and how understanding it can help us make better decisions.

What Exactly Is The Hot Hand Fallacy?

The hot hand fallacy is the belief that someone who has experienced success with a random event has a higher chance of continued success. It’s as if people think success breeds more success, even when the outcome is purely down to chance.

The term originally came from the world of basketball. Fans, coaches, and even players believed that if someone made a few consecutive shots, they were more likely to make the next one. The idea was that the player was "hot" and on a roll. But here’s the kicker: statistical analysis shows that players are no more likely to make a shot after a streak of successful shots than they are after a miss.

A Case of Misinterpretation

On the surface, the belief in hot streaks seems reasonable. If a player just made five shots in a row, it feels like they’ve cracked some magical code. But, in reality, each shot is independent of the previous ones, assuming they have the same level of difficulty.

Statistics reveal that the likelihood of making a shot is more about the player’s overall shooting percentage rather than any so-called "hot hand." In fact, the fallacy is more about how we interpret random events than about the events themselves.

Why Do We Fall for The Hot Hand Fallacy?

Our brains are wired to look for patterns. It’s a survival instinct that’s been passed down through generations. In the wild, recognizing patterns – like when and where animals gather or when it’s safe to travel – could mean the difference between life and death. While we’re no longer hunting for food, our brains still crave patterns and predictability in everyday life.

The Gambler's Fallacy’s Sibling

The hot hand fallacy is closely related to another famous cognitive bias, the gambler’s fallacy. The gambler’s fallacy happens when people believe that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future. For example, if a coin lands on heads five times in a row, people might think the next flip is more likely to be tails, even though the odds are still 50/50.

While the gambler’s fallacy makes us think a streak will end, the hot hand fallacy makes us think a streak will continue. Both are examples of how we misinterpret randomness and chance.

The Role of Emotional Investment

Another reason we fall for the hot hand fallacy is emotional investment. When we’re cheering for someone, whether it’s an athlete, a poker player, or even ourselves in a personal endeavor, we want them to succeed. We want to believe that they’re "on fire" or "in the zone." It makes the experience more exciting, more engaging, and more satisfying when they succeed.

But here’s the cold, hard truth: just because we want something to be true doesn’t mean it is. In fact, our emotional investment can cloud our judgment, making us more susceptible to cognitive biases like the hot hand fallacy.

The Science Behind The Hot Hand Fallacy

You may be wondering if there’s any scientific evidence to back up the idea that the hot hand is indeed a fallacy. Well, there’s plenty.

The Original Study

The concept of the hot hand fallacy was first introduced by cognitive psychologists Amos Tversky, Thomas Gilovich, and Robert Vallone in their 1985 paper. They analyzed basketball data and found that a player’s success rate didn’t significantly increase after hitting several consecutive shots. In short, they concluded that what people perceived as a "hot hand" was nothing more than a random streak.

Their findings caused quite a stir, especially in the sports world, where the belief in the hot hand had become almost sacred. But the evidence was clear: there was no statistical basis for the hot hand.

Further Studies

Since that groundbreaking study, other researchers have explored the hot hand fallacy in various contexts, from gambling to stock market trading. And guess what? The results are strikingly similar. People tend to see patterns where none exist and believe that random events follow predictable paths.

Interestingly, some more recent studies have suggested that there might be minor, context-dependent instances where a "hot hand" could exist, but these cases are the exception, not the rule. For the most part, streaks are just streaks – nothing more, nothing less.

Real-World Examples of The Hot Hand Fallacy

Let’s take a look at how the hot hand fallacy plays out in real life. You might be surprised by how often it pops up!

Sports

As we’ve already discussed, sports is one of the most common arenas where the hot hand fallacy rears its head. Whether it’s basketball, soccer, or tennis, fans and players alike tend to believe that a streak of success means more success is coming.

But, as the research shows, this belief is often unfounded. A player may hit a few shots in a row, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re any more likely to hit the next one. Each shot is still subject to the same odds and variables as the previous ones.

Gambling

The hot hand fallacy is also prevalent in gambling, especially in games like poker or roulette. If a player wins several hands in a row, they might think they’re on a lucky streak and will keep winning. But the odds of winning are the same after a streak as they were before it.

In fact, believing in the hot hand can lead to risky behavior, such as betting more money than you can afford to lose. It’s a classic psychological trap that can have serious consequences.

Stock Market

Investors can also fall victim to the hot hand fallacy when they believe that a streak of good financial returns will continue indefinitely. Just because a stock has been performing well doesn’t mean it will keep going up. The stock market is incredibly volatile, and past performance is not always indicative of future results.

How Can We Avoid The Hot Hand Fallacy?

Now that we know what the hot hand fallacy is and why we fall for it, the next question is: how can we avoid it? Here are a few tips for keeping this cognitive bias in check.

1. Recognize Randomness

The first step to avoiding the hot hand fallacy is to recognize that many events in life are random. Whether it’s a basketball shot, a roll of the dice, or a stock market investment, random events don’t follow predictable patterns. Just because something happens a few times in a row doesn’t mean it will keep happening.

2. Trust the Statistics

It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of a streak, but remember that statistics don’t lie. If the data says that something is random, trust the data. Don’t let your emotions or biases cloud your judgment.

3. Keep Emotions in Check

Speaking of emotions, it’s important to keep them in check. When we’re invested in something – whether it’s a game, a bet, or a decision – our emotions can lead us to make irrational choices. Take a step back, breathe, and try to approach the situation with a clear head.

4. Educate Yourself

The more you know about cognitive biases like the hot hand fallacy, the better equipped you’ll be to avoid them. By educating yourself about how your brain works and how it can lead you astray, you’ll be more likely to make rational, informed decisions.

Wrapping It Up

The hot hand fallacy is a fascinating example of how our brains can trick us into seeing patterns where none exist. Whether it’s in sports, gambling, or everyday life, we all have a tendency to believe that success begets more success – even when the odds haven’t changed.

By understanding the hot hand fallacy and recognizing the randomness of many events, we can make better decisions and avoid falling into the trap of believing in streaks. Next time you’re watching a game or making a big decision, ask yourself: is this a real pattern, or am I just falling for the hot hand fallacy?